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時間:2022-08-22 來源:本站 點擊:258次
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专家谈鹤岗房子白菜价:不是个例,收缩型城市要学会做收缩规划******

原标题:专家谈鹤岗房子白菜价:不是个例,收缩型城市要学会做收缩规划

房子变成“白菜价”,东北四线城市鹤岗房价跌破1000元

一套住房只要一万多元,黑龙江地级市鹤岗的“白菜价”楼房迅速刷屏,这背后,折射了什么问题?

4月18日,在上海社会科学院经济研究所主办的“区域经济一体化与全国统一市场建设学术研讨会”上,第一财经记者就鹤岗楼盘现象、收缩型城市,以及老工业区面临的转型问题专访了辽宁省社科院副院长梁启东。

梁启东认为,“白菜价”住房不单单是鹤岗的个例,而是东北地区、西北地区等老工业区普遍面临的情况。在老工业区,除了中心城市房地产稍微上涨,很多三四线城市都存在类似现象。投资骤减是房地产大幅下滑的直接原因,但梁启东认为根本原因在于人口流失和城市收缩。

也因此,梁启东认为,政策制定者、城市管理者应该适当调整城市化战略,学会做“收缩”的规划。老工业区也需要找到新的发展路径。

“白菜价”房子背后是人口收缩

“在房地产投资方面,东北地区从2008/2009年后开始了大规模城镇化,实际就是造新城。随着整体投资规模的大幅下滑,房地产投资也随之下滑。像铁岭、阜新这类三四线城市前几年建的房子直到现在还没卖完,在这些城市也基本看不到新建的楼盘。”梁启东说。

第一财经记者通过查询网上房屋销售平台,也确实发现铁岭、阜新等三四线城市在售房源基本都是建于2016年之前。

鹤岗“白菜价”房子的背后,是人口外流、城市收缩。梁启东分析了东北老工业区人口减少原因:

首先,老工业区都有人才使用的体制机制问题和人口外流问题。梁启东说,现在的情况是,如果一个县城考出去100个大学生,能回到县城工作的不到10个人,有能力的年轻人走了,他们下一代也会离开县城,他们的父母也会去子女就业的城市帮忙带孩子或者外出养老。并且,对于人口流出地区而言,其实际人口数量还可能低于户籍人口数量,因为不少在外打工的人或者老年人,仍会保留本地户籍,在本地拿养老金,却在外地消费。

其次,老工业区都存在低生育率问题。东北很多农村地区也有众多国有企业——国有农场、国有盐场,都严格执行计划生育政策。

梁启东曾在农村做过副乡长,抓过计划生育工作。他说,东北地区生育率长期低于国家平均水平,已经进入深度老龄化阶段。辽宁省2018年统计公报显示,目前辽宁省65岁人口已经达到661.3万人,占15.17%,属全国最高。

“整个东北常住人口增量逐年下降,在全国排名倒数;人口出生率也是全国倒数。东北除了四大副省级城市以外,不少城市每年都流失一两万人,以抚顺为例,2012年末人口数量是219万人,2017年末则是213万人,5年时间自然减少了6万人,这是不可逆的。人口流失了,消费就降低了。下一步城市管理者要学会做收缩型城市的规划和研究。”梁启东说。

要学会制定收缩型城市规划

国家发展改革委近日发布的《2019年新型城镇化重点建设任务》,首次提出“收缩型城市”概念,指出“收缩型中小城市要瘦身强体,转变惯性的增量规划思维,严控增量、盘活存量,引导人口和公共资源向城区集中”。

梁启东认为老工业区的城市管理者也应该适当调整城镇化战略,从扩张型转型为扩张型和收缩型结合的战略,例如东北的大连、长春、哈尔滨等中心城市还在扩张,但很多三四线小城市已经不可避免地走向收缩。

梁启东建议,以交通主轴为核心,集中发展大中型城市,在偏远地区、传统的生态脆弱区、生态涵养区、小城镇、村屯这些人口逐渐萎缩的地方,采取收缩型的战略。

如何推进收缩型战略?梁启东认为有五点:

一是要在城市规划上收缩,不要铺摊子,要善于做小、做精、做出质量;

二是产业上收缩,向高质量方向发展转型。当煤炭资源枯竭时,这类产业就要收缩,建议与当地产业结合搞绿色产业;

三是收缩型城市以生态保护为主,降低政府考核指标,对地方官员要实施分类考核,除了经济效益指标外,可以考核生态指标、社会稳定指标、应急管理指标、安全指标等;

四是基础设施建设收缩,不能追求老工业区、西部地区、山区都实现电网改造、水利工程、高速公路、通信等大型基础设施全覆盖;

此外,梁启东建议对某些地区实施灵活的计划生育政策,比如在东北设立计划生育特区。辽宁省的调查情况显示,在完全放开二胎指标的情况下,有生育二孩意愿的家庭不到20%。

老工业区发展要开对药方

造成目前东北老工业区人口流失、城市收缩的根本原因是经济下滑,背后有深层的体制机制问题。

梁启东说,“东北老工业基地存在体制机制僵化、市场化程度不够的问题,这反映在国有企业改革滞后上:一是国企改革进展比较慢,现在东北还存在上世纪90年代的‘大锅饭’、‘铁交椅’;二是老工业区有大量的历史遗留问题,老国企背了很多包袱,它们有自己的教育系统、托儿所、小学、中学,养老院、农场、公安处,不是不想改,而是动不了。”

由此,东北也出现了民营经济边缘化的问题。梁启东谈到,东北三省民营经济中真正有能力、有水平的不多。在全国500强的民营企业中,2003年东北有18家,2018年下降到9家,吉林有2家、黑龙江有1家、辽宁有6家入围。但在浙江省,单单一个杭州市就有36家入围。

对待东北老工业区的现状,梁启东认为首先要进行大力度改革,包括国有企业改革、和央企改革对接、更大力度地推进民营经济发展,以及优化营商环境。

其次是用创新驱动发展。“老工业区的传统产业和传统动能衰退了,新动能还没发展起来,正处于新旧动能交替、青黄不接期。所以老工业区振兴的要义,就是培育新产业,培育新动能。西北、东北的老工业区有40多年时间了,平时加点油、加点水,没换过发动机,现在老工业区振兴得换发动机了。” 梁启东说。

Macao welcomes delegation of mainland Olympians******

MACAO, Dec. 19 (Xinhua) -- The Macao Special Administrative Region (SAR) government held a banquet on Sunday evening to welcome a delegation of mainland Olympians.。

Ao Ieong U, Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture of the Macao SAR government, expressed her hope that Macao athletes and youth can learn from the examples set by mainland Olympians and make unremitting efforts on their own future.。

Macao has made continuous progress in sports over the years, she said, attributing it not only to the joint efforts of the SAR government and the sports circle, but also to the long-term support from the country.。

Yang Ning, who heads the delegation, said the General Administration of Sport will continue to strengthen exchange and cooperation between the mainland and Macao and further promote the development of sports in both sides.。

Yang also pledged full support to Macao as well as its neighboring province Guangdong and the Hong Kong SAR in successfully co-hosting the 15th National Games in 2025.。

The delegation includes 29 athletes and three coaches from 12 sporting events. They will attend a flag-raising ceremony on Monday morning marking the 22nd anniversary of Macao's return to the motherland and other interactive activities. Enditem。

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It'll be best ice, says Wukesong ice******

BEIJING, Nov. 11 (Xinhua) -- As Beijing's Wukesong Sports Center staged an ice hockey test event for Beijing 2022 this week, 47-year-old ice-maker Richard Alan Ragan revealed he was satisfied with the ice-making work in the stadium and was confident to showcase the "best ice" next February.。

"I think the ice has been fantastic," Ragan told Xinhua about the performance of ice throughout the test event.。

"We have a really good crew here, and they have learned a lot. They've worked really hard and the ice is really good."

Ragan has been working as a professional ice-maker for about 15 years, and he regards Wukesong as one of the best buildings he has worked in.。

"I really like working here," he said.。

"The engineering side of the building has been great. I've been able to tell them what temperature I want and they do it right away. That has been really, really fantastic, which helps a lot for the ice."

The American is currently working for IIHF to help prepare the ice well for next year's Winter Olympics.。

"I think one of the challenges is that this is not a hockey building. It's a basketball building," said Ragan about the challenge of making the ice in Wukesong. "That's kind of a little bit challenge to figure out the (different) systems."

Ragan will be in Beijing when the Winter Olympics take place next year. He is confident that the ice in Wukesong will be in the best shape.。

"It'll be the best ice they've ever seen. We have a really good crew, and this building is great. I can't wait to have the building with people in it," said Ragan.。

"I think the Olympic Games are going to be awesome," he added. Enditem。

China maps path to carbon peak, neutrality under new development philosophy******

BEIJING, Oct. 24 (Xinhua) -- Chinese authorities on Sunday unveiled a guiding document on the country's work to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals under the new development philosophy, laying out key specific targets and measures for upcoming decades.

By 2030, China's carbon dioxide emissions will peak, stabilize and then decline, and by 2060, China will be carbon neutral and have fully established a green, low-carbon and circular economy, it said, reiterating the country's previous pledge.

Toward this end, China aims to gradually increase the share of non-fossil energy consumption to around 20 percent by 2025, around 25 percent by 2030, and over 80 percent by 2060, according to the document jointly released by the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council.

The country's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be lowered by 18 percent from the 2020 level by 2025 and will have dropped by more than 65 percent compared with the 2005 level by 2030, said the document titled "Working Guidance For Carbon Dioxide Peaking And Carbon Neutrality In Full And Faithful Implementation Of The New Development Philosophy." Enditem

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